HEV Scenario

The gasoline hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) scenario assumes that HEVs are added to new car sales to match the existing introduction of gasoline HEVs.  The  graph below shows the historical HEV sales (blue line) in the US, which dropped sharply after the Great Recession of 2008/2009. We assume that HEV sales resume their rapid increase in sales after 2012; the sales are modeled with a logistics function over the century (graph on the right):

HEV sales

The resulting mix of regular gasoline and hybrid gasoline vehicle sales assumed in the model is shown below:

The gasoline HEV sales grow from 2.06% of all light duty vehicles (cars and trucks) sold in 2011 to 98.5% by the end of the century. Of course the number of vehicles on the road lags these numbers as older vehicles are retired over time.


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