BuiltWithNOF
PHEV Scenario

In the gasoline plug-in hybrid electric vehicle scenario, plug-ins are added to the mix of ICVs and HEVs over the century as shown below.  The rate of introduction of PHEVs was matched to the early sales record of the Chevy Volt, the first PHEV manufactured by a major OEM:

These early sales were then coupled with a logistics curve over the 21st century:

We assume that up to 75% of all vehicles can be plugged in at night. In other words, 25% of all cars are parked on the street and do not have access to a garage, car port, driveway, or assigned off-street parking where a charging outlet and smart meter could be installed and used only by the rightful owner of the PHEV. This 25% level would also cover those drivers (or their teen-age children!) who occasionally forgot to plug-in their PHEVs, which means that they would operate more like HEVs running on gasoline until the next time their batteries were charged from the grid. Those cars that do not have access to electric outlets are still assumed to be full hybrid electric vehicles to minimize GHG and oil consumption in this PHEV scenario.

A 2010 survey of potential BEV customers by Deloitte [1] found that only 39% of potential PHEV or BEV drivers have access to home charging outlets or nearly half the number  assumed in this model (75%).  Therefore the results shown in this simulation for PHEVs and BEVs may be optimistic compared to actual conditions in the US.

The resulting sales fractions for the gasoline PHEV scenario are shown below.

 

[1] “Gaining traction: A customer view of electric vehicle mass adoption in the US Automotive Market” by Deloitte (2010),  

 

 [HEV Scenario] [Biofuel PHEV Scenario] [FCEV Scenario] [BEV Scenario]

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[Alternative Vehicles Compared] [Societal Threats] [Alternative Vehicle Choices] [Simulation Assumptions] [Scenarios] [Electricity Sources] [Hydrogen Sources] [LDV VMT & Sales] [Vehicle Fuel Economy] [Simulation Results] [Batteries or Fuel Cells?] [Hydrogen Safety] [FAQ] [Natural Gas Vehicles] [Links] [About Us] [Contact Us]
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